Climate risk and attribution science provides a critical evidence base for quantifying changes in hazard characteristics and linking observed impacts to climate change. Attribution science provides the evidence base needed to quantify the role of anthropogenic climate change in observed extremes, supporting climate justice and accountability. This is particularly important for informing disaster risk reduction (DRR), early warning systems, and long-term adaptation strategies. Additionally, attribution evidence strengthens Africa’s position in international climate negotiations by providing scientifically robust arguments for Loss and Damage financing and accountability under global frameworks.

ACS conducts probabilistic climate risk assessments and event attribution analyses to quantify changes in the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme events such as droughts, floods, and heatwaves. These analyses support both forward-looking risk assessments and retrospective evaluations of climate impacts.

Using observational datasets, large climate model ensembles, and established attribution methodologies (e.g., risk ratios, return period analysis), ACS delivers scientifically robust attribution statements. Outputs are tailored into policy-relevant formats, enabling integration into disaster risk reduction (DRR), adaptation planning, and Loss and Damage frameworks.